Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 intervention measures in schools

Graz University of Technology     |     Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Jana Lasser     |     jana.lasser@tugraz.at     |     @janalasser

Slides available at:

Research questions

(1) Can outbreaks be controlled with non-pharmaceutical measures?

(2) What measures work best?

(3) How many measures are necessary?

Agent based modelling of SARS-CoV-2 in schools

Agent based modelling of SARS-CoV-2 in schools

Agent based modelling of SARS-CoV-2 in schools

Agent based modelling of SARS-CoV-2 in schools

Model of the infection

Model of the infection

Model of the infection

Model of the infection

Model of the infection

Model of the infection

Model of the school

Model of the school

Model of the school

Model of the school

Model of the school

Model of the school

Contact types

Interaction Duration Proximity Type
household very long very close household
table neighbours long close K1
teachers, long meeting long close K1
teaching, supervision long close K1
classmates, daycare mates long far K2
teachers, short meeting short close K2

simulation of infection dynamics



















Observational data


Data from Austrian health agency (AGES) cluster tracing.

Observational data


Data from Austrian health agency (AGES) cluster tracing.

Interventions

Results

Results

Results

Results

Results

Summary of results

(1) Measure combinations can prevent frequent large outbreaks.

(2) Testing and ventilation are sufficient to contain (most) outbreaks.

(3) Risk in primary schools is lower, mainly due to organisational aspects.

(4) Results are highly sensitive to bad measure implementation and more infectious variants.

Publication preprint:
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.13.21255320

Simulation package "small comunity SEIRX" (Python):
https://pypi.org/project/scseirx

Application to schools: https://github.com/JanaLasser/school_SEIRX

Application to nursing homes: https://github.com/JanaLasser/nursing_home_SEIRX

slides:
https://janalasser.at/talks/school_covid_talk_conference/