Open or closed?
Agent-based Simulations of SARS-CoV-2 Prevention Measures in Austrian Schools
Graz University of Technology | Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Jana Lasser | jana.lasser@tugraz.at | @janalasser
slides available at
https://janalasser.at/talks/school_covid_talk_short/
Im autum 2020, keeping schools open or closing them has become a very ideological discussion in Austria:
... opening schools is no problem since children are less susceptible to the virus ...
... children get infected in schools and spread the virus to their families ...
... wearing masks and frequently airing the rooms is harmful for children ...
... keeping schools closed is harmful for children ...
We aimed to provide scientific evidence to enable informed decisions:
Can outbreaks in schools be controlled with non-pharmaceutical intervention measures at all?
What measures work best?
How many measures are necessary?
Are children less infectious?
Remaining free parameters:
How much smaller is the transmission risks for
K1 contacts?
How much smaller is the transmission risks for
K2 contacts?
How much smaller is the transmission risk for children?
A K1 contact is 15% less likely than a household contact to transmit an infection.
A K2 contact is 25% less likely than a household contact to transmit an infection.
Children are 2% less likely per year younger than 18 to transmit an infection.
We have a calibrated model
of different school types
that we can use to test interventions.
Class size reduction: How well does it work?
Masks: Are they worn correctly?
Ventilation: How efficient is it really?
Preventive testing: How many participate voluntarily?
Test technology: How sensitive are the tests?
Virus: Mutants with higher infectivity?
Scenario 1: Conservative assumptions about measure implementation
Scenario 2: Mutant with increased transmissibility
Baseline: scenario with literature values
X: X-fold increase of mean outbreak size over baseline
R: Number of transmissions from the index case
Primary schools seem to be safe, other school types depend on the scenario.
Primary schools seem to be safe, other school types depend on the scenario.
Primary schools seem to be safe, other school types depend on the scenario.