Calibrating school models to cluster tracing data
Graz University of Technology | Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Jana Lasser | jana.lasser@tugraz.at | @janalasser
Slides available at https://www.janalasser.at/talks/calibrating_school_models/
school type | # classes | # students | # teachers |
---|---|---|---|
primary | 8 | 19 | 12 |
primary with daycare | 8 | 19 | 16 |
lower secondary | 8 | 18 | 20 |
lower secondary with daycare | 8 | 18 | 24 |
upper secondary | 10 | 23 | 29 |
secondary | 28 | 24 | 70 |
Source: Austrian school statistics.
536 clusters* with 3342 cases recorded in Austrian schools between
2020-08-31 and 2020-11-02 collected by AGES.
Age | School type | Clusters | Cases |
---|---|---|---|
< 10 years | primary | 67 | 286 |
10-15 years | lower secondary | 180 | 762 |
> 15 years | upper secondary | 116 | 388 |
> 10 years | secondary | 70 | 810 |
otherwise | inconclusive | 103 | 1097 |
*"school cluster": at least two cases of which at least one transmission ocurred in a school context.
Data available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4706876
*Follow-up to exclude initially pre-symptomatic cases.
Aim: build a model of infection transmission in Austrian schools that reflects this data a closely as possible.
Use the calibrated model to test the effectiveness of additional intervention measures.
[1] Madwell et al. 2020 Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
[1] Madwell et al. 2020 Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Assumption: q2 = q3 = qage.
Model qage as linear decrease in infection risk for every year younger than 18.
Simulations for all school types:
(-) Draw source cases from known distribution of teachers and students.
(-) Use known age-dependence of asymptomatic courses.
(-) Simulate with known conditions (only TTI) at data collection time.
Contact weight: 0.30 [0.26; 0.34].
Age dependence: -0.005 [-0.0225; 0.0] per year younger than 18.
Publication 1: Lasser et al. 2022. Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data. Nature Communications 13:554
Publication 2: Lasser, Hell, Garcia 2022. Assessment of the effectiveness of Omicron transmission mitigation strategies for European universities using an agent-based network model. Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases, accepted
Team: Peter Klimek, Johannes Sorger, Lukas Richter, Stefan Thurner, Daniela Schmid
Simulation package: https://pypi.org/project/scseirx
Data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4706876
Slides: https://www.janalasser.at/talks/calibrating_school_models/