Open or close?
Agent-based Simulations of SARS-CoV-2 Prevention Measures in Schools
Graz University of Technology | Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Jana Lasser | lasser@csh.ac.at | @janalasser
slides available at
https://janalasser.at/talks/school_covid_talk/
Keeping schools open or closing them has become a rather ideological discussion.
Can we control outbreaks with non-pharmaceutical intervention measures?
What measures work best?
How many measures are necessary?
Are children less infectious?
Remaining free parameters:
How much smaller is the transmission risks for
K1 contacts?
How much smaller is the transmission risks for
K2 contacts?
How much smaller is the transmission risk for children?
A K1 contact is 15% less likely than a household contact to transmit an infection.
A K2 contact is 25% less likely than a household contact to transmit an infection.
Children are 2% less likely per year younger than 18 to transmit an infection.
We have a calibrated model
of different school types
that we can use to test interventions.
Class size reduction: How well does it work?
Masks: Are they worn correctly?
Ventilation: How efficient is it really?
Preventive testing: How many participate voluntarily?
Test technology: How sensitive are the tests?
Virus: Mutants with higher infectivity?
Scenario 1: Conservative assumptions about measure implementation
Scenario 2: Mutant with increased transmissibility
Baseline: scenario with literature values
X: X-fold increase of mean outbreak size over baseline
R: Number of transmissions from the index case
Primary schools seem to be safe, other school types depend on the scenario.
Primary schools seem to be safe, other school types depend on the scenario.
Primary schools seem to be safe, other school types depend on the scenario.